I know I’ve been missing in action since Week 2 but unfortunately it couldn’t be helped, nonetheless here I am back for Week 6 and hopefully without another hiatus such as this until the end of the season. I’m keeping 3 sets of records here the first one is simply my Pick ‘Em record which was 2-1 in Week 1, the second record is against the spread I was 1-2 against the spread and the third record is on the over/unders which I went 1-2 as well. Now tonight Week 6 kicks off with the 5-0 Atlanta Falcons at the 1-4 New Orleans Saints. One figures that since most of the games in this rivalry of late have been decided by 3 points or less that this should figure to be a close one. I think it will be a bloodbath.
Matt Ryan this season has a TID of 1 and is completing 64.9% of his passes and is averaging through the first 5 weeks 1.2 TD passes a game. Julio Jones his number one pass catcher having been on the receiving end of 35.8% of Matt Ryan’s completions, has 43 receptions on the season with an RR of 69.3% and is averaging 2.9 YAC. Roddy White has been having a quiet year so far with only 8 receptions on 17 targets which is less than 1% of Ryan’s passing attempts going his way. With the 7th ranked passing attack in the NFL going up against the 23rd ranked pass defense, the Falcons need to get Roddy White more involved in this offense. Defensively the Falcons are ranked 29th against the pass and with 6 sacks they are not getting to the quarterback enough. The Falcons have 10 turnovers through the first five games 6 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries. The fact that they have recovered 66.7% of the fumbles they have forced this season will help against a team with a penchant for putting the ball on the ground and not recovering it.
Drew Brees is completing 66.5% of his passes and has a TID of 1.7. Brandin Cooks his top receiver has been on the receiving end of 23.5% of Brees’ passing attempts, he has 25 receptions for 62.5% RR and has a 3.0 YAC. Opposing quarterbacks against the Saints defense have a 4.5 TID which means that the Saints defense doesn’t create nearly enough turnovers for the amount of points that they allow. With the 28th ranked rushing attack the Saints are unable to sustain drives which exposes the Saints defense for the liability that it is. If the Saints are going to have a chance of winning this game Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson are going to have to step up. If C.J. Spiller is going to return to his Buffalo form tonight would be the night for him to do that.
Both quarterbacks are having mediocre seasons and will be able to pass all night on each others secondaries, the difference in this game is the Falcons are the 6th ranked rushing attack in the NFL and the Saints are 28th, the Falcons will be able to chew up the clock and keep Brees off the field. Which leads us to our key players in the game for the Saints it is running back Mark Ingram he has to step up his game and for the Falcons it will be rookie linebacker Vic Beasley who leads the team with 2 sacks, he needs to make Brees uncomfortable or he will chew up and spit out the Falcons 29th ranked secondary.
The Falcons are getting 3 1/2 on the road with an O/U of 52. I think this game is close but the Falcons win this one by a touchdown easily unless Rob Ryan’s squad somehow figures out how to play defense. Take the Falcons and the under.
Final Score: Atlanta Falcons 24 New Orleans Saints 17