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The Green Bay Packers are coming off a tough road loss in Buffalo. The Packers cannot afford to drop this game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Admittedly a lot of things need to go wrong this week for the Packers to wind up holding the short end of the stick in the NFC North division race. First the Packers have to inexplicably lose to the 2-14 Bucs and the inept Redskins have to beat the Eagles. This scenario is not a very likely one so one assumes that the Packers will be playing for the NFC North title in week 17 when they host the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers has a TID of 6.5 compared to Bucs starter Josh McCown who has a TID of -0.7. I’m sure most people find it strange that Mike Glennon who has a TID of 1.9 is sitting on the bench. The Packers average 33.4 yards more a game than the Buccaneers and 0.6 yards more per carry. The Packers defense is 0.5 yards more a carry than the Bucs and per game are allowing 11.7 yards more than the Bucs defense. The Packers have one of the best deep ball threats in Jordy Nelson whose YAC average of 5.4 is greater than the YAC Average of the entire Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs have a YAC average of 4.2 on offense while allowing a 4.8 YAC average. The Packers as an offense have a YAC average of 6.0 while their defense gives up an almost equal amount in yardage after the catch as their offense gains after the catch with a 5.9 YAC average. The Bucs offensive line has given up 42 sacks an average 3 sacks a game, the Packers pass rush should have no problem getting to the quarterback through a bad offensive line. The Packers offensive line has given up 28 sacks for an average of 2 sacks a game. The Bucs who have actually managed to accumulate one extra sack than the Packers will have a harder time bringing down Rodgers who can extend a play with his feet, better than Josh McCown.

The key matchup is the Packers receivers versus the Buccaneers secondary. The Bucs don’t have a single thousand yard receiver yet, the Packers have two. The Packers have 3 receivers with over 400 yards after the catch each one of them averages more per catch than the entire Buccaneers offense. The fact is the Packers absolutely need to win this game, especially if the Eagles lose on Saturday. The Packers are 10 1/2 point favorites in Tampa Bay, I think the Packers easily win by two touchdowns, take the Packers giving the points in Tampa against a bad Bucs team.

Final Score: Green Bay Packers 42 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

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